Measuring the security ‘smarts’ of the TSA

first_imgDaniel Geer and Bob Blakely recently published a security metrics paper asking the question “Are you smarter than the TSA? (Hint: No)”.  The paper takes a position the value (aka ‘smarts’) of the TSA is based upon the investment they commit per passenger and does a comparison to attackers and security programs in large enterprises.  Using ballpark figures, they estimate TSA spends about $10 per passenger boarding, while other security programs spend only pennies per customer.  The paper can be found here.  Daniel Geer is one of the most well respected security metrics expert in the industry.  But I just can’t follow this line of analysis…I think it is dangerous to distill the value of security based only upon the expenditure.  Although an obvious relationship exists between security spending and controlling loss, I doubt it is linear.  Increasing the TSA budget by 300% to $24B will not equate to 3x the level of security people feel or benefit from when boarding a plane.  Will 3x more terrorists be caught or hijackings will be reduced to 1/3 current levels?  Doubtful.  Spending more does not mean security will improve at the same rate. The attackers likely don’t see it as an economic problem either.  Cost may be a limitation, establishing boundaries on what attacks can be attempted.  But I have not seen any evidence attackers make strategic decisions based upon a ratio of spending-to-attacker or target.  If anything, I suspect they evaluate the spending in relation to the likely return.  In my humble opinion, this probably holds true for financial, political, and even social attacks. I would rather see this turn into a return-on-investment analysis, rather than a comparison on who is willing to spend more. The question in the paper asks “Are you smarter than the TSA?”.  I would judge any organization which can achieve and manage to the same or better level of risk (risk of loss) in a similar environment, while spending less, as being “smarter than the TSA”.  Related Blogs:last_img read more

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Tri-series: Winless India under pressure in must-win game against Australia

first_imgAustralia have already qualified for the final with three successive wins. (AP Photo)Their World Cup preparations derailed by successive losses, India would look to reignite the spark and keep themselves afloat in the ODI tri-series when they take on an unbeaten Australia in a must-win game here on Monday.With three victories in three matches, the hosts have already qualified for the final in Perth on February 1.The heavy loss to England in Brisbane thus means that India will not only have to win both their remaining games, in Sydney and then in Perth against the English, but win with a decent margin. They will probably need to garner bonus points in both matches.In that light, perhaps it is good news that Ishant Sharma and Ravindra Jadeja are available for Monday’s game. It remains to be seen though if they will be picked in the playing eleven, especially Jadeja, as there still remains some doubt over his fielding capability in the outfield.Meanwhile, Rohit Sharma has been ruled out of this match as a hamstring injury continues to bother him. However, at this point in time, his participation in the World Cup is not in doubt. As such, India’s batting order is nearly pre-decided. Ajinkya Rahane will once again open with Shikhar Dhawan, who will be desperately searching for some form. The possibility of debate will be over two points. First, whether Virat Kohli will continue to bat at number four.There has been a huge debate over this move from the Indian team management, in argument that the best batsman in the side should bat higher up in the order. Statistically, Kohli has done well at both number three and four. He averages 51.97 at number three, scoring 14 of his 21 ODI hundreds there, a run of form that has seen parallels drawn with the likes of Sir Vivian Richards and Ricky Ponting.advertisementHowever, before he made that spot all his own, Kohli batted at number four for India, and indeed played a pivotal role in the 2011 World Cup for the team. In this debate, Kohli’s performances at that slot have been forgotten.Having already qualified for the Perth final, they will use this match to rest a couple of players as well as fine-tune their permutations and combinations for the big tournament ahead. To this effect, George Bailey is back in-charge of the side after Steve Smith did the job against England on Friday. Shane Watson is still ruled out due to injury, while Mitchell Marsh has recovered.If he is selected he will not be playing as a batsman alone and will be expected to bowl as Australia are looking to play Xavier Doherty and drop one of their regular pace-bowlers on this spin-friendly wicket.Mitchell Johnson and Josh Hazlewood have both rejoined the squad here in Sydney, and while they did bowl during net-practice, they are not expected to feature in the eleven just as yet. It will mean a toss-up between Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Gurinder Sandhu. Given their recent rotation policy, Starc might be up for a rest on Monday.last_img read more

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Lionel Messi poses for an on-field selfie with opponent

first_imgLionel Messi may be quite used to pose for selfies, but even for him it was a first when Deshorn Brown requested the star to be clicked with the striker shortly after Argentina’s laboured 1-0 win over Jamaica in Copa America.Argentina progressed to the quarters as group toppers but their performance was far from satisfactory.Messi appeared less than satisfied after the win but was polite enough to pose for the picture when approached by Brown, who was visibly happy to be just near him.Jamaican footballers didn’t seem to mind the defeat.Brown later posted the picture online with the message: “Not the result we were looking for, but I get to meet the best player in the world and it was a great feeling to play against him!! Best of luck to Messi and Argentina in the rest tournament!!”Messi also gave away his two match jerseys to Jamaican footballers, who asked for the prized memento.last_img read more

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Bundesliga: Bayern crash 0-3 to Gladbach

first_imgBayern Munich suffered a second consecutive Bundesliga defeat, crashing 3-0 at home to Borussia Moenchengladbach, to drop to fifth in the table on Saturday while Paco Alcacer scored a hat-trick for league leaders Borussia Dortmund. Pressure is mounting on Bayern head coach Niko Kovac whose side are four points behind Dortmund. Bayern are winless in their last four games in all competitions and suffered back-to-back league defeats for the first time since May 2015, when they had already won the Bundesliga title. Bayern were 2-0 down after just 16 minutes at the Allianz Arena. Gladbach striker Alassane Plea beautifully curled a long-range shot around the dive of Munich goalkeeper Manuel Neuer on 10 minutes. The second came six minutes later when Bayern midfielder Thiago Alcantara lost possession near his own box. Jonas Hofmann pounced on the loose ball and squared for club captain Lars Stindl, making his return after long-term injury, to score and stun the Munich crowd. Bayern left-back David Alaba limped off with injury after the break and although Munich striker Robert Lewandowski had the ball in the Gladbach net on 68 minutes, the effort was offside. Patrick Hermann added the third goal in the 88th minute when he took advantage of a mistake in the Bayern defence and fired the ball across Neuer. Gladbach are now second, three points behind leaders Dortmund who needed a 96th-minute free-kick from Alcacer to seal a stunning 4-3 win over Augsburg. Having already scored two late goals off the bench in last Saturday’s 4-2 comeback victory at Bayer Leverkusen, and netted again in the 3-0 Champions League midweek win over Monaco, Alcacer was again deadly off the bench. With seven goals in just four games since signing on a season-long loan from Barcelona, the 25-year-old, on loan from Barcelona until June, hopes to stay past the 2018/19 season. “I feel good here and I can imagine staying at Borussia Dortmund for more than a year,” said Alcacer. “Goals are important, but more important is the team spirit.” Drama in DortmundThere was no clue of the drama to come when Dortmund slipped 1-0 down after Alfred Finnbogason’s first-half goal. Alcacer equalised on 62 minutes, three minutes after coming on, by converting a cross by winger Jadon Sancho, 18, who had his first call up to the senior England squad on Thursday. Philipp Max restored Augsburg’s lead only for Alcacer to claim his second equaliser on 80 minutes when he fired in off the post. Dortmund led for the first time on 84 minutes when midfielder Mario Goetze, another second-half replacement, latched onto a great through ball and fired home. The game swung when Augsburg equalised as Michael Gregoritsch headed home a Max cross to make it 3-3 with three minutes left. However, the stage was set for Alcacer to seal the three points after Augsburg’s Sergio Cordova gave away a free-kick. Elsewhere, Hertha Berlin missed the chance to climb over third-placed Werder Bremen, who won 2-0 at Wolfsburg on Friday, by being held to a goalless draw at Mainz. After losing their first five games, Schalke continue their rise with a 2-0 win at Fortuna Duesseldorf as US international Weston McKennie and Guido Burgstaller grabbed the goals to put them 14th. US striker Bobby Wood scored with two perfectly-timed headers as Hanover 96 picked up their first win of the season with a 3-1 home win against Stuttgart, who are now bottom. Former Germany striker Mario Gomez, with a bandaged head after a first-half clash, scored Stuttgart’s consolation goal soon after the break before Hanover’s Togo striker Ihlas Bebou added their third in the 91st minute. Catch up on all the latest sports news and updates here. Also download the new mid-day Android and iOS apps to get latest updates This story has been sourced from a third party syndicated feed, agencies. Mid-day accepts no responsibility or liability for its dependability, trustworthiness, reliability and data of the text. Mid-day management/mid-day.com reserves the sole right to alter, delete or remove (without notice) the content in its absolute discretion for any reason whatsoeverlast_img read more

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‘Conte eager to return to Italy job’

first_imgChelsea ‘Chelsea boss Conte eager to return to Italy job’ – FIGC commissioner Sacha Pisani Last updated 1 year ago 15:33 2/2/18 FacebookTwitterRedditcopy Comments(1) Antonio Conte Chelsea Getty Images Chelsea Antonio Conte Carlo Ancelotti Italy Premier League The former Juventus manager is under pressure at Stamford Bridge, and it is now claimed he wants to take the vacant position in charge of the Azzurri Chelsea boss Antonio Conte is “eager” to return to his role as Italy head coach, according to Italian Football Federation (FIGC) commissioner Roberto Fabbricini.FIGC is yet to replace Gian Piero Ventura, who presided over Italy’s shock 1-0 aggregate defeat to Sweden in the World Cup qualifying play-off as the Azzurri failed to reach the showpiece tournament for the first time since 1958.Italian quartet Conte, former Bayern Munich tactician Carlo Ancelotti, Zenit head coach Roberto Mancini and Nantes boss Claudio Ranieri have all been linked with the vacant post. Article continues below Editors’ Picks Lyon treble & England heartbreak: The full story behind Lucy Bronze’s dramatic 2019 Liverpool v Man City is now the league’s biggest rivalry and the bitterness is growing Megan Rapinoe: Born & brilliant in the U.S.A. A Liverpool legend in the making: Behind Virgil van Dijk’s remarkable rise to world’s best player Conte was at the helm between 2014-16, guiding Italy to the Euro 2016 quarter-finals before joining Chelsea, where he won the Premier League title last season and the 48-year-old – who is reportedly unhappy at Stamford Bridge over transfers – wants to work with the national team again, according to Fabbricini.”Mancini was in Rome but we didn’t contact him, Conte seems eager to wear Azzurro again, Ancelotti opens and closes the door and Ranieri isn’t out either,” Fabbricini – who was named commissioner on Thursday after an election failed to find a replacement for former president Carlo Tavecchio – told reporters.”There’s no-one in pole position, we have to evaluate the pros and cons.”We also have to evaluate the availability of the Federation, and explain to those who will come after us that there will be new governance.”Now though we’ll evaluate what to do, along with [sub-commissioner Alessandro] Costacurta.”Chelsea’s title defence is almost over after Wednesday’s surprise 3-0 loss at home to Bournemouth left the Londoners 18 points behind runaway Premier League leaders Manchester City.last_img read more

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Nova Scotians Encouraged to Consider Adoption

first_imgNovember is Adoption Awareness Month and Nova Scotians are encouraged to consider adopting a child who needs a permanent loving home of their own. An adoption awareness and recruitment campaign called Kids Can’t Wait to Have a Family will run this month. The campaign involves print and television advertising and a variety of promotional materials aimed at encouraging more Nova Scotians to explore adoption. “There are more than 100 children and youth in Nova Scotia who are waiting to be adopted into a loving family,” said Judy Streatch, Minister of Community Services. “We encourage people to consider adoption year-round, but November is a time to create awareness and urge Nova Scotians to consider opening their home to a child and provide a stable, loving environment for them to grow.” In 2006-07, 99 children were adopted by Nova Scotian families. The majority of children waiting to be adopted are older with special placement needs. Single, common law partners or married people may qualify to become adoptive parents, as long as they are over 19 years of age. More information about adoption, including how families can take the first steps towards adopting a child in Nova Scotia, is available by phoning the adoption information line at 1-866-259-7780 or by visiting the Community Services web site at www.gov.ns.ca/coms.last_img read more

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Wanted criminal nabbed by police

first_imgGreater Noida: The Gautam Buddh Nagar police on late Tuesday night arrested a wanted criminal who carried a reward of Rs 50, 000 on his head following a gun battle in Bisrakh police station area. Police officials said that the accused was wanted in a gang rape incident that happened in year 2014.According to police, the arrested accused has been identified as Rashid alias Bablu, a native of Khurja area in Bulandshahr district. “During routine police checking, the accused was spotted by police who was travelling on a motorcycle. Police signalled him to stop instead he sped up the vehicle and opened fire on police. Police party retaliated and nabbed the accused from Hindon bridge near Sorkha village under Bisrakh police station area,” said a senior police officer.last_img read more

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Morocco Supports 41 New Enterprises in 2017

Rabat – Approximately 41,24 enterprises were created in Morocco in 2017, up 3 percent from 2016, according to data from the Trade Registry.The Moroccan Office of Industrial and Commercial Property recorded a growth rate of +3 percent, having issued 73,451 business applications in 2017. These requests were chiefly recorded in three sectors, namely services, trade, and construction.The limited liability company remains the predominant business structure at 50.5 percent, followed by single-partner limited liability companies at 47.8 percent of the total number of business start-ups created last year. In terms of the regional company distribution, the Casablanca-Settat region maintained its first place ranking for the attractive and favorable business region at 36 percent.Rabat-Salé-Kenitra trailed at 15 percent, while the Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima region and Marrakech-Safi both recorded 11 percent.The rate of sole proprietorships, the simplest business model, also increased by more than 8 percent compared to 2016.38,065 individual companies were registered against 35,118 in 2016, with the highest rate recorded in f Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima at 21 percent, followed by the Oriental region at 16 percent and Casablanca-Settat at 10 percent.Many of these Moroccan enterprises are not limited toMorocco, as their presence has seen an exponential increase in other African markets.According to a joint statement by the Moroccan Association of Exporters (ASMEX) and the American consultancy firm Bearing Point issued in late 2016,  Moroccan enterprises are making  their mark in Cameroon, the Ivory Coast, Mali, and Senegal.According to the same statement, just five years ago “for 86 percent of Moroccan companies surveyed, Africa accounted for less than 5 percent of their turnover.” This year’s data shows that nearly 20 percent of the surveyed Moroccan companies “estimate that Africa will account for more than 50 percent of their total turnover in the next five years.” read more

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Experts predict another challenging year for dairy farmers

ESSEX, Vt. — The country’s dairy farmers are in for another challenging year with milk farm prices only expected to improve slightly, following four straight years of low prices, experts said Thursday.One plus is that the new farm bill includes an improved insurance program that farmers pay for to help them when the gap between milk prices and feed prices reach a certain level. But the program was delayed by the 35-day partial government shutdown. While the shutdown is now over, the Farm Services Agency still has to write the rules for the margin program.“The good news is that farmers have insurance. The bad news is that farmers even have to use insurance to make their milk check whole,” said Doug DiMento, a spokesman for Agri-Mark, Inc., a dairy co-operative in the Northeast.“Farmers want to receive a milk check that’s going to cover their costs without insurance,” DiMento said after speaking at the dairy meeting at the Vermont Farm Show.Milk prices paid to farmers are expected to be better this year but not by much, University of Wisconsin dairy economist Mark Stephenson said. He predicts an increase of about a $1 per hundredweight, or hundred pounds of milk.“A lot of farms have not been covering the cost of production for the last four years and this is probably going to be another year when they’re going to have a difficult time,” he said. “Most of the farms are out of working capital. And they’re having to borrow against that equity to continue milking.”Other issues, too, are challenging the dairy industry, such as unresolved trade issues that are harming exports and boosting surpluses, and consumer demand in some segments, said Alan Bjerga, a spokesman for the National Milk Producers Federation.“You can see that a dramatic rebound is not seen in any of the forecasts which means that producers are going to continue to try to find the best markets and prices they can and manage their risk as effectively as they can and we think that the new farm bill will be very helpful in that,” he said.Farmers in the margin protection program are projected to be paid in the first half of the year, and industry experts expect those payments to be retroactive.Dairy farmer Walter Bothfeld of Cabot, Vermont, said the program helps but it’s almost too little too late, he said.“We can use them anytime,” he said of the payments. “Because the grain bill’s not delayed, it comes every month. And they like to be paid.”Lisa Rathke, The Associated Press read more

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Global challenges call for stronger cooperation between developing countries – Migiro

“Development does not occur in a vacuum,” Asha-Rose Migiro told the UN High-Level Conference on South-South Cooperation, taking place in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. “It has proved to be most successful when coupled with strategies to increase cross-border trade and investment.”The three-day meeting, which began today will review 30 years of progress since the UN Conference on Technical Cooperation among Developing Countries, held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 1978.Ms. Migiro said that since Buenos Aires, millions of men, women and children have been lifted out of extreme poverty and a number of developing countries had achieved the fastest pace of economic growth in human history.“The international community can only welcome higher South-South investments in agriculture, education, health and infrastructure development, particularly here in Africa,” she stated.At the same time, South and North alike faced multiple crises, including hunger – which now afflicted an unprecedented 1 billion people – as well as unemployment, slumping trade and looming climate change. “Solutions to these and other ills require stronger cooperation, starting with one’s immediate neighbours,” said the deputy UN chief.Ms. Migiro added that South-South cooperation should not replace North-South cooperation, but rather complement it. “Together we can harness the great endowments of the South and achieve the internationally agreed development goals.”Helen Clark, Administrator of the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and Secretary-General of the Conference, told the participants that her agency aims to support and facilitate the exchange of knowledge and experience across the South to help accelerate development.She added that, in light of the current global recession, developing countries needed ready access to most relevant knowledge and best practices in order to devise their own responses. To that end, UNDP had witnessed that many countries had begun looking to their neighbours in the South for responses more suitable to addressing the current financial crisis. 1 December 2009The United Nations Deputy Secretary-General today called for stronger and more innovative cooperation between developing countries, particularly neighbouring States, to tackle global challenges such as poverty, hunger and climate change. read more

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1 in 3 Canadians relying strictly on online shopping for holiday gifts

AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to TwitterTwitterShare to FacebookFacebookShare to RedditRedditShare to 電子郵件Email by Michael Oliveira, The Canadian Press Posted Nov 28, 2014 10:40 am MDT 1 in 3 Canadians relying strictly on online shopping for holiday gifts: poll TORONTO – A growing number of Canadians plan to do all of their holiday shopping online this year to avoid stepping foot in maddening malls, suggests a new survey commissioned by Google.About one in three of the Canadians polled online by Ipsos Reid said they would rely on e-commerce to purchase all their gifts, which was up 50 per cent compared to the results of a similar survey conducted last year.Still, a majority of the Canadians said that while they would be doing some gift-buying research online, they would ultimately brave the crowds.“Consumers, rather than wandering up and down on the high street or through malls, are much more purposeful now when they’re making those purchase decisions. They’re doing their research online prior to going into the malls and they know what they want,” said Rafe Petkovic of Google Canada.Another recent poll conducted for MasterCard Canada yielded somewhat similar results, with almost one in three Canadians saying they planned to do half or more of their holiday shopping online.Sarah Quinlan, head of market insights for MasterCard Advisors, said she’s surprised that some major retailers still aren’t open for business on the web in Canada, especially since e-commerce growth has been strong in 2014.MasterCard estimates e-commerce now represents about 6.7 per cent of total retail sales in Canada and is up 22.6 per cent compared to this time last year.“The number is clearly trending up, there’s no doubt about it, it’s increasing, that’s why it’s sort of still surprising that there are some major retailers that haven’t participated in the game yet,” Quinlan said.Canadian Tire and Shoppers Drug Mart are lagging their leading U.S. counterparts in terms of the breadth of their e-commerce offerings, and struggling Target has not indicated if and when it will open a web store for Canadians.“It’s not about everybody shopping on e-commerce versus bricks and mortar, that’s not what we’re seeing. What we’re seeing is (online shopping) is giving the consumer flexibility.”According to Google’s poll, this year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping days should be bigger than ever in Canada.About 44 per cent of the poll respondents said they planned to shop on one or both of those days. Half as many poll respondents were interested in Black Friday and Cyber Monday last year.Google expects almost half of the clothing and electronic holiday gifts purchased by Canadians this year will be bought on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.Google’s online poll was conducted with 1,054 holiday shoppers between Sept. 10 and 17.The MasterCard online poll was conducted by Angus Reid Forum with 1,005 Canadians on Nov. 14 and 15.The polling industry’s professional body, the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error as they are not a random sample and therefore are not necessarily representative of the whole population.Note to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version wrongly said Canadian Tire and Shoppers Drug Mart are “not offering online sales”. read more

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In Geneva UN Member States and experts discuss demographic economic dimensions of

The talks, focused on the proposed Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration will explore, among others, comprehensive migration policies to address irregular migration and propose more regular pathways including family reunification, regularization, and transition from informal to the formal economy. “The Global Compact on Migration is in fact the opportunity and the opportunity for States to face the challenges of migration,” said UN Special Representative for Migration, Louise Arbor, at the opening of the meeting. Recalling the importance of migration as an engine of economic growth, UN General Assembly President Miroslav Lajčák advocated for a global compact, “not just an agreement on paper, but concluded on the basis of a political program.” According Mr. Lajčák, “whatever the nature of our passports, the citizens of the world have the same rights.” Three panels are also exchanging ideas on how to reduce the costs of labour migration, promote fair and ethical recruitment and explore labour migration schemes between countries of origin and destination. “While most migrations are well managed and undertaken through completely legal channels, not all people who wish to migrate find the right channel to do so,” Ms. Arbor pointed out. A series of side events will complement these discussions by focusing on topics such as health, ethical recruitment and skills recognition. At the same time, several intergovernmental meetings are also taking place in Geneva, including the Seventh Global Meeting of Chairs and Secretariats of Consultative Processes on Migration, which focused on the regional inputs to the Global Compact. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has provided support to the GCM consultations, particularly by extending the required technical and policy expertise, including the publication of suggested actions to States for expanding labour mobility channels. The final thematic session will lead to the next GCM meeting to be held in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico in December, where governments will take stock of the discussions that began on 8 May and encompass discussions on the human rights of all migrants, social inclusion, cohesion and all forms of discrimination. “Irregular migrations, with all the risks inherent to it, are linked to the lack of safe and regular migration routes,” Ms. Arbour stressed. read more

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Students show their assorted flavours

Assorted Flavours, a new juried exhibition of student art, is on display at Rodman Hall until April 11.Once a year, Visual Arts students submit their best artwork for inclusion in an annual exhibition juried by Canadian professional artists. This year’s exhibition, organized by students, explores the range of contemporary art media.Assorted Flavours includes painting, drawing, photography, video, sculpture and installation works. The artworks in this exhibit have been selected by this year’s jurors — Maggie Groat of Guelph and Melanie MacDonald of St. Catharines.Maggie Groat is a visual artist who works in performance, intervention, video, film, photography and drawing. In 2008, she received grants from the Canada Council for the Arts and the Ontario Arts Council. She received her BFA from York University in Visual Art Studies in 2007. She lives and works in Guelph, where she is completing her first year of the MFA program at the University of Guelph. Maggie is part of the CRAM art collective, based out of her hometown of St. Catharines.Melanie MacDonald was born in St. Catharines in 1976. Today, she lives in downtown St. Catharines and is an active member of the Niagara Artists’ Centre, the region’s only artist-run centre. She is also a member of the CRAM collective. In 2000, she graduated from Brock with a combined Honours BA in English and Visual Art. She has participated in group and solo exhibitions in the Niagara Region, Northern Ontario, and Quebec.Such exhibits from the Department of Visual Arts are essential to the Marilyn I. Walker School of Fine and Performing Arts’ mandate to connect the community with the breadth of talent and creativity at Brock University. This event is free and open to the public. read more

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Are The Raptors Really Favorites Against The Warriors

If our NBA model could talk, here’s what it might say about the NBA Finals:Bleep, bleep, bloop. Based on their accomplishments over the past few seasons, the Golden State Warriors are better than the Toronto Raptors at full strength. However, the Warriors will start the NBA Finals without Kevin Durant, and possibly also without DeMarcus Cousins. To state the obvious, being without those guys makes them a worse team. Meanwhile, Toronto is also a really good team, and its regular-season record somewhat understates its performance because its current lineup is stronger than it was for most of the season. Plus, the Raptors have home-court advantage. Run the numbers, and the Raptors come out as slight favorites in the series. Bloop, bloop, bleep.Make sense? Well apparently not, at least not to those of you who are wagering your hard-earned income on the series. Betting market prices imply that the Warriors are about 72 percent favorites to win the championship.We think our NBA forecasts, in their current, improved form, are pretty smart, but we also think sports betting markets tend to be really smart. (Note: This isn’t true for political betting markets, which are mostly pretty dumb.) So we wouldn’t suggest that you go out and wager all your loonies on the Raptors to become the first Candian team to win a title in a “Big 4” sport since … to the chagrin of literally every Canadian NHL team … the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays.Still, it’s interesting to see the series through our model’s eyes. So while we also talked about our forecast on this week’s edition of Hot Takedown, I want to go through it in more detail here. Basically, I’m going to work through everything in the italicized paragraph, starting with the least controversial claims and moving to the most contentious ones.“Run the numbers, and the Raptors come out as slight favorites in the series.”OK, so that’s actually the most contentious claim — we’ll loop back to it at the end. But I do want to point out that “slight” really does mean “slight” in this instance. The Raptors are merely 55 percent favorites in the series, at least based on our current understanding (as of early Wednesday morning) of the injury prognosis for Durant and Cousins. In our election forecasts, we’d label a race like that as a “toss-up.”“Plus, the Raptors have home-court advantage.”In a seven-game series between two equal-strength teams, the home team should win about 54 percent of the time, according to our model. So basically, the entirety of the Raptors’ very small edge in the series is because a Game 7 would be played in Toronto. If the Warriors had won two more regular-season games and had home-court advantage instead, they’d be roughly 53 percent favorites to win the series, per our model.And if anything, our model might be understating the impact of home-court advantage in this series. The Warriors are generally regarded as having one of the biggest home-court advantages in the league, and Toronto is 40-11 at home between the regular season and the playoffs.“Based on their accomplishments over the past few seasons, the Golden State Warriors are better than the Toronto Raptors at full strength.”Our NBA team projections are derived from our CARMELO player projections, which use data from the past three seasons plus the current season.That’s a good thing for the Warriors, because if you based the projections based on this season’s data alone, the Raptors would be more substantial favorites. Three of their five starters — Pascal Siakam, Danny Green, Marc Gasol — have significantly outperformed their preseason CARMELO projections. (Reserve swingman Norman Powell has also outperformed them to a lesser extent.) For the Warriors, conversely, Cousins significantly fell short of his preseason projections — no doubt because of his injuries — and his current projection is probably too optimistic. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green also slightly underperformed their projections, although Green has been great in these playoffs. Andre Iguodala and Kevin Looney have outperformed their projections, but overall, the Warriors are helped by the fact that we’re looking at multiple years of data.So even though both teams played about equally well this year — the Raptors went 58-24 to the Warriors’ 57-25, but the Warriors had a slightly better point differential and played a slightly tougher schedule — our model would have the Warriors as 65 percent favorites if each team was at full strength to start the series (or 69 percent if the whole series were played on a neutral court).1The Raptors’ only current injury is to backup swingman OG Anunoby; our model actually thinks they’re slightly better off without Anunoby since it likes the rest of their reserves better, so his injury actually helps their rating slightly. The 65 percent figure refers to the version of the Raptors with Anunoby healthy. This reflects the Warriors’ accomplishments over the past several seasons in addition to having more playoff experience, a factor that our model accounts for — although the Raptors, with former NBA Finals MVP Leonard as well as Green (118 career playoff games), Kyle Lowry (80) and Gasol (77), have plenty of experience of their own.In other words, our model takes some countermeasures to the fact that veteran, championship-driven teams like the Warriors tend to lollygag their way through the regular season. It looks at longer-term performance, and it accounts for playoff experience, as well as the increased playing time that’s given to top players in the playoffs, which helps top-heavy teams like Golden State. Is it doing enough to account for those factors? Maybe not, and our model has had plenty of challenges with teams like the Warriors and LeBron James’s Cavaliers in the past. But it’s at least aware of these issues, and it doesn’t hold the Warriors’ good-but-not-great regular season all that much against them.“Toronto is also a really good team, and its regular-season record somewhat understates its performance because its current lineup is stronger than it was for most of the season.”The Raptors were often without the services of what our model regards as their two best players. They played 22 regular-season games without Leonard, who was frequently rested for “load management,” as well as 17 games without Lowry. In addition, they only acquired Gasol in February, and he’s a significantly better player than the center he replaced, Jonas Valanciunas, according to our model. It also took some time for Toronto to take full advantage of Siakam, who played fewer minutes and took fewer shots early in the season.Thus, the current version of the Raptors is associated with an Elo rating that would peg them not as a 58-win team, but somewhere in the mid-60s instead.Until recently, however, that elite version of the Raptors existed mostly on paper. The Lowry-Green-Leonard-Siakam-Gasol lineup played only 161 regular-season minutes, although it was highly effective when it did play, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions. That group has now played 314 minutes together in the playoffs, and — somewhat remarkably given that the Raptors have been playing extremely tough competition in the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers — it’s still outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per 100 possessions.So Toronto’s starting lineup has begun to prove itself — you have to be really good to win four straight games against the Bucks, who were the NBA’s best regular-season team. And I should probably mention that our model also had the Raptors slightly favored against Milwaukee2In fact, as 55 percent favorites, the same as it currently has them against Golden State. despite the Bucks having been heavily favored in Las Vegas.“However, the Warriors will start the NBA Finals without Kevin Durant, and possibly also without DeMarcus Cousins. To state the obvious, being without those guys makes them a worse team.” LineupCurryDurantThompsonOff RatingDef RatingNet Rating KD + Klay✓✓101.2100.6+0.6 7June 16Toronto80100Raptors by 1 Lineups are weighted by minutes playedSource: NBA 107.195.7+11.4 Curry + KD + Klay✓✓✓115.9100.9+15.0 GameDateLocationDurantCousinsFTE point spread Neither The most obvious conclusion from the lineup data, in fact, is that Curry is a lot better than Durant. With Durant but not Curry playing, the Warriors outscore opponents by a pedestrian 1.7 points per 100 possessions. But that’s not the same as saying they’re better without Durant. That’s especially true on offense, when there don’t appear to be any diminishing returns from having both Durant and Curry in the lineup at once.Dig a little deeper, and you find that while Curry and Durant work just fine as a tandem, there may be some diminishing returns from playing Durant and Thompson together. Lineups with Durant and Klay playing but Curry off the floor have been mediocre, perhaps because Durant doesn’t like to pass and Thompson relies heavily on assisted field goals. Furthermore, lineups with Curry and Durant but without Thompson have been better than lineups with all three together. The Warriors give up a bit of offense in those lineups, but they make up for it with superior defense by having players such as Iguodala on the floor. Curry only✓ Klay only How KD, Curry and Klay play togetherSince 2016-17, playoffs and regular season 4June 7Golden State4080Warriors by 3 None of them Durant is out for at least Game 1, with no clear timetable for his return. Cousins is questionable for Game 1, but from the tone of the Warriors’ comments, he looks highly likely to return at some point in the series.You can see the impact of Golden State’s injuries in the evolving point spreads that our model establishes for each game of the series. In Game 1 — with Durant out and Cousins 50 percent likely to play (based on the very rough science of translating the Warriors’ vague injury guidance into probabilities) — the Raptors are 6-point favorites at home, per our model. In the event of a Game 7 in Toronto, by which point we assume that Cousins is definitely back and Durant is 80 percent likely to play — they’d be only 1-point favorites, conversely. Toronto would also be 4.5-point underdogs on the road in Oakland in Game 6. If the Raptors don’t strike early in the series, the odds will shift dramatically against them. 1May 30Toronto0%50%Raptors by 6 LineupCurryDurantOff. RatingDef. RatingNet Rating ✓98.498.9-0.5 Likelihood of playing 2June 2Toronto1060Raptors by 5 Lineups are weighted by minutes playedSource: NBA Curry + KD✓✓115.099.8+15.2 You’d think that all of that seems pretty reasonable. Our model is saying that having Durant and Cousins healthy-ish instead of injured-ish is worth about 5 points per game to the Warriors.But that’s not the narrative surrounding the Warriors at the moment. Instead, the stat you’ve probably heard is this one: 31-1. That is, the Warriors are 31-1 in their last 32 games without Durant but with Stephen Curry playing. This has lead to plenty of talk-radio chatter about whether the Warriors are better off without Durant, who has an option to become a free agent at the end of the season.Like most narratives, that one leaves out some of the messy details. Our ESPN colleague Kevin Pelton has a long, detailed breakdown of the Warriors’ play with and without Durant. I’d suggest you read the whole thing. For one thing, that 31-1 record overstates the case somewhat, since it arbitrarily ignores the first six games that the Warriors played without KD (counting those, they’re 34-4) and since their point differential wasn’t quite as strong as their record in those games would suggest. Those games were also played against a fairly easy schedule.Perhaps more importantly, Pelton finds based on game-by-game data that being without Durant lowered the Warriors’ ceiling. With both Durant and Curry in the lineup, the Warriors had so much firepower that they could take possessions off against mediocre teams, especially on the defensive end. In the NBA Finals, however, the Warriors will presumably be playing every possession at close to maximum effort, with or without Durant. So they’re deprived of a top gear they would have had with him healthy.We can also look at the Warriors’ lineup data over the past three seasons (including both the regular season and the playoffs), which accounts for their performance on a possession-by-possession basis with various combinations of players. With both Curry and Durant on the floor, the Warriors outscored opponents by a dominating 15.2 points per 100 possessions. With Curry only, that number falls to 11.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s still a very good number — Curry is impossibly good! — but it’s in the same ballpark as the Raptors’ current starting lineup, and the Raptors have more depth and home-court advantage. Likelihood of playing for Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins reflect our subjective estimates based on news accounts about their conditions. KD✓102.3100.6+1.7 Curry✓108.296.4+11.8 5June 10Toronto5090Raptors by 2.5 3June 5Golden State3070Warriors by 2.5 Curry + Klay✓✓109.097.0+12.0 How the Warriors have fared with and without KD and CurrySince 2016-17, playoffs and regular season The Warriors will get tougher to beat as they get healthierFiveThirtyEight point spread for the NBA finals 6June 13Golden State70100Warriors by 4.5 Curry + KD✓✓111.796.1+15.6 KD only✓104.9100.6+4.3 91.6100.5-8.9 95.699.6-4.0 But the thing is, our projections actually account for all of this on-court/off-court data, at least to some extent. One of the metrics we use to fuel our projections, Real Plus-Minus (RPM), is largely based on the lineup data. So the fact the Warriors have played quite well with Curry but without Durant is accounted for in their respective ratings. Our forecasts think that Curry is quite a bit better than Durant — if Steph were injured instead of KD, it would really have Golden State in trouble.You can also go too far in looking at the on-court, off-court stats. They can be noisy, and there are also a lot of technical complications in evaluating so many five-player lineup combinations together. In fact, we’ve found that RPM (which itself is a blend of box score statistics3e.g. points, rebounds, assists, steals. and lineup data) actually goes slightly too far in using the lineup data, so we hedge against it by blending it with another metric based on box score statistics called Box Plus/Minus or BPM.“Run the numbers, and the Raptors come out as slight favorites in the series.”So do I — Nate as a basketball fan, not as a model co-designer — really buy what our model says?I mostly buy the part about the Raptors being better than they’re given credit for. Their current starting lineup has been very good, and I can imagine the betting public sleeping on it a bit because it’s involved several fairly subtle changes (e.g. upgrading Valanciunas for Gasol, Leonard playing every game, etc.). Nor do I see any obvious flaws with the Raptors, who can work effectively as either an up-tempo team (perhaps with Gasol off the floor) or in the half-court, with Leonard draining midrange jumpers and corner threes.Leonard’s health is a concern, however, particularly insofar as it could affect his ability to effectively defend Curry, a tempting matchup for the Raptors.As for how the model is evaluating the Warriors, I’m less sure. As I mentioned, the metrics behind our model (RPM and BPM) don’t actually like Durant that much; while he was repeatedly going off for massive games against the Clippers and Rockets, a few of us were complaining that the model underrated him. But there are a couple of things that worry me. First, although we have a few tricks to try to account for the Warriors’ variable effort level, their indifference during parts of the past few regular seasons may be contaminating the data to some degree. Second, our model tends to assume that building a lineup is a fairly linear process, when it isn’t. The Warriors are insulated against the loss of Durant to some degree because Thompson functions better as Curry’s Splash Brother sidekick than as a third wheel in Curry-Durant lineups.The handful of minutes each game that the Warriors play without Curry on the floor are liable to be a disaster, however, and if Leonard somehow can bottle up Curry the same way he did Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Warriors are probably toast. And I think our model actually overrates Cousins, who isn’t likely to play up to his projections while recovering from his multiple injuries.Overall, I think our model is mostly right about the Raptors, but more wrong than right about the Warriors. Since it only has the Raptors as extremely narrow favorites, that might be enough to tip the balance slightly in Golden State’s favor. But I find it hard to contemplate how the Warriors can be as heavy as 3-to-1 favorites, as they nearly are in Vegas. There is, if nothing else, a lot of uncertainty about how well the Warriors can play against a top-level team without Durant — I’m sorry if I don’t regard the Portland Trail Blazers as a top-level team — and the Raptors are good enough that the Warriors will probably have to bring their A-game.Bleep, bleep, bloop. From ABC News: Check out our latest NBA predictions. read more

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Former Ohio State mens hockey goalkeeper Collin Olson thriving with Sioux City

Former OSU goalkeeper Collin Olson (30) makes a save during a game against Miami (Ohio) Oct. 11 at the Schottenstein Center. OSU lost, 6-2. Olson left the program to play for the USHL.Courtesy of OSU athleticsThe Ohio State University is not for everybody.Last November, goalkeeper Collin Olson made news after he decided to leave OSU for the United States Hockey League. Over the last few months, he’s been in headlines again — only this time, it’s for what he’s been doing on the ice.Olson, a sixth-round draft pick in the 2012 NHL Draft by the Carolina Hurricanes, was a star recruit who came to OSU during the 2012-2013 campaign after playing in the USHL with the U.S. National Team Development Program for two seasons.After only playing in nine contests (seven starts) during his freshman year because then-senior All-American goalkeeper Brady Hjelle was a strong player, Olson expected to see an increase in playing time during his sophomore campaign.Yet after struggling in the season opener against Miami (Ohio) Oct. 11 and allowing two goals on three shots against Robert Morris in his second start Oct. 25, the Apple Valley, Minn., native lost his playing time to freshman Matt Tomkins and subsequently decided to leave the school.“Collin feels he hasn’t played the number of games he’s needed over the last few years,” OSU coach Steve Rohlik said in a November press release. “He has decided leaving our program to find somewhere he will play more games will be best for his future. He is a good kid and a good student and we wish him nothing but the best.”Olson, who finished his career at OSU with a 2-4-1 record, 3.70 goals against average and an .885 save percentage, did not want to talk about why he left, simply saying that the decision he made was for the best.“It was what was right for me in the situation,” Olson said in a Feb. 10 phone interview. “I don’t want to get into specific reasons why. It was just going to work out better for me to come back (to the USHL) and find a different path.”Olson was originally a futures pick for the Cedar Rapids RoughRiders in 2010, who held onto his rights when he went to play for USA and kept him on their college-protected list when he came to Columbus. However, wanting to make room for their other young goaltenders, the Riders traded him to the Sioux City Musketeers for three draft picks in early November.Olson, however, returned to the U.S. National Team Development program until late December because of an NCAA rule that prevented him from playing in any outside activities because he was still enrolled at OSU.“Since I finished out first semester, I was not allowed to play in any outside activities because technically I was still on the team,” Olson said. “The only way around that was unless it was Olympic-sponsored, which the U.S. team I played at before I went to Ohio State was, so I was able to play there without being penalized.”Olson ended up playing in three games for the U.S. National Junior Team and the decision paid dividends as he shined between the pipes, posting a shutout in his first game against the Green Bay Gamblers Nov. 16.Still, when Olson finally made it up to Sioux City, Iowa, to play in the USHL for the Musketeers he found himself in a backup role once again, this time sitting behind Kyle Hayton, one of the USHL’s top netminders.But Olson said the Musketeers are in good shape because they now have two goalies who can help out in different situations.“Me and Kyle play different styles,” Olson said. “He is a lot smaller than I am, so he tends to rely on a lot of different things, but it’s great because now we have something for every situation.”However, after Hayton was forced to sit out because of a concussion he suffered New Year’s Eve, Olson got his chance to start and ran with it.Taking home USHL Goaltender of the Week honors for his play from Dec. 30 to Jan. 5, Olson recorded his first shutout with the Musketeers in a game against the Muskegon Lumberjacks Jan. 3 and followed it up by stopping 31 shots the next night in a 4-2 win over the same Muskegon squad.Overall, Olson is 5-2-0 with Sioux City, posting a goals allowed average of 1.72 and save percentage of .939, something he said is because of the atmosphere that has surrounded him in the Sioux City organization.“It’s been great. I’ve had a lot of fun,” Olson said. “It’s nice to stay at the rink a long time and work … it’s been nice to come to Sioux City which has some of the best facilities in the USHL … I feel very lucky to play here.”Still, just because things did not work out with the Buckeyes, that doesn’t mean Olson’s collegiate career is finished.Olson said he plans to go back to college during the 2015-16 campaign and that he is just trying to find the right fit.“Because of NCAA rules, I have to sit out next year so I will come back to the USHL,” Olson said. “I’m talking to a few schools … I’m definitely going to go back to school, I just haven’t decided where yet.” read more

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We gave everything Sorry it wasnt enough firefighter leaves heartfelt tribute Grenfell

first_imgFloral tributes, one bearing a message from the London Fire Brigade are placed near The Grenfell Tower blockCredit:Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP Having spent hours battling the blaze which engulfed Grenfell Tower, a London firefighter has left a heartfelt tribute to the victims of the blazeWrapped in pink paper, a bouquet of flowers was left among the other messages of condolence near the tower.A handwritten message read: “We’ve never worked harder. We gave everything. Sorry it wasn’t enough”, the Sun reported.The message has been signed off by “firefighters x”.More than 250 firefighters were called to fight the blaze which has claimed at least 30 lives. It is feared that the final death toll will be much higher. Hundreds more people have been left homeless. Want the best of The Telegraph direct to your email and WhatsApp? Sign up to our free twice-daily  Front Page newsletter and new  audio briefings. Floral tributes, one bearing a message from the London Fire Brigade are placed near The Grenfell Tower block, Separately, the Fire Brigades Union is donating £20,000 raised by its weekly Firefighters 100 lottery to the victims of the Grenfell Tower fire.Matt Wrack, the union’s general secretary said: “In over 30 years of working within the fire service, I have never seen a fire like this.“Firefighters want to do everything they can for the victims. We hope this donation will go some way towards helping those people affected.“Everyone who plays the Firefighters 100 Lottery will support this decision.”last_img read more

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EHF CL BEST 7 Vargas Dibirov Mogensen…

EHF Champions League ← Previous Story POLL: Did referees help RK Vardar to beat RNL and Telekom Veszprem? Next Story → David Davis arrives to Veszprem – Promotion on Tuesday? EHF TV announced BEST 7 of the VELUX EHF Champions League – Round 4.Here are the best…Goalkeeper: Gonzalo Perez de Vargas (FC Barcelona)Line player: Senjamin Burić (PPD Zagreb)Left wing: Timur Dibirov (Vardar)Left back: Halil Jaganjac (Metalurg)Playmaker: Tomas Mogensen (Skjern)Right back: Magnus Rod (Flensburg)Right wing: Arkadius Morito (PGE Vive Kielce) read more

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Holden appoints Dorizas on road to reinvention

first_img Facebook Twitter: @NeosKosmos Instagram Gerasimos (Gerry) Dorizas has been appointed the new chairman and managing director of GM Holden. A veteran of the global automotive industry, Mr Dorizas is tasked with overseeing the closure of Holden’s South Australian and Victorian manufacturing operations and guiding the company’s transformation from vehicle producer to vehicle importer – a process to be completed by the end of 2017. Mr Dorizas, who took up the post on March 1, takes over the reins from Mike Devereux, who announced his retirement from the beleaguered auto manufacturer three months ago.Dorizas takes control of Holden at a time of huge uncertainty as it begins a journey from Australian-made icon to full-line importer. Athens-born Dorizas – who has more than two decades of experience in the automotive industry – began his career in the early 1990s as deputy sales director at Mercedes Benz Hellas and became president and CEO of the Fiat Auto group of companies in Greece in 2000.In the past decade he has been president of Hyundai Motor Europe in Germany and CEO of Volkswagen group Sales in India.Mr Dorizas told reporters that he was looking forward to the challenges of his new job.“Around the world, Holden is renowned for the strength of its product and the professionalism of its people,” Mr Dorizas said.“I am energised by the opportunity to lead a talented and passionate team and to guide one of Australia’s strongest, most iconic brands into its next phase.” President of GM’s International Operations, Stefan Jacoby, said that Mr Dorizas was the right man for the job as Holden sets out to reinvent its operations. “Gerry has the right industry-leading experience and credentials to lead GM Holden through a significant program of change, as it transitions to a national sales company,” he said.“GM International Operations is undergoing a transformation that is committed to driving our markets toward success. As part of this transformation, the GMIO team is working to build a global organisation with strong local passion, ownership and entrepreneurship.”The last eight Holden bosses have come from GM’s operations in North America and Europe.Dorizas most recently served as Volkswagen Group India president and CEO and is understood to be the first person to be hired from outside General Motors to run Holden.last_img read more

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Juneau Assembly To Decide Fate Of Haven House

first_imgSigns protesting Haven House’s location can be seen all over the Malissa Drive area, even in front of Haven House. (Photo by Lisa Phu/KTOO)The Juneau Assembly heard an appeal Monday night challenging a transitional home for women who are former inmates.Download AudioAndrew Hughes and the Tall Timbers Neighborhood Association contend the conditional use permit granted to Haven House in October by the Juneau Planning Commission was improper.Each side of the appeal had 30 minutes to present its arguments. Prior to the hearing, the Assembly had about 1,700 pages of supporting documents to review.Representing the Tall Timbers Neighborhood Association, attorney Dan Bruce argued Haven House is a halfway house. He quoted how city code defines a halfway house:“‘A single-family dwelling for not more than nine persons over the age of 12, together with not more than two persons providing supervision and other services to such persons, all of whom live together as a single housekeeping unit. Residents may be serving a sentence for a criminal act.’ That is Haven House. There is no ifs, ands or buts about it.”Under city code, halfway houses are not allowed in typical residential districts, like the zoning that covers Malissa Drive in the Mendenhall Valley where Haven House is located.Attorneys Dan Bruce, Robert Palmer, and Mary Alice McKeen presented arguments to the Juneau Assembly Monday night. (Photo by Lisa Phu/KTOO)Bruce said the short-term residents of Haven House would not take ownership of the neighborhood and its presence would lower property values.“This is the wrong move. It is placing transitory individuals with criminal records in a stable and mature neighborhood and I think that’s completely inappropriate. And I think it is in effect a social experiment and the people of this neighborhood are being asked to be part of the experiment,” Bruce said.Attorney Mary Alice McKeen represented Haven House. She said Haven House is not a halfway house and the head of Alaska’s Department of Corrections agrees.“And the reason is that people live in Haven House by their choice. They are not sentenced to live at Haven House. The women living in Haven House could live anywhere as long as they got the permission of their probation or parole officer,” McKeen said.Representing the planning commission, assistant city attorney Robert Palmer III said Haven House is considered transitional housing and is allowed in a residential neighborhood with a conditional use permit.“The record clearly establishes that there’s substantial evidence that transitional housing will improve the public health and safety. The structure complies with all fire and building codes. And probably most importantly, evidence was presented that the recidivism rate without transitional housing is roughly 60 percent. With transitional housing as proposed by Haven House, recidivism rate drops down to 20 percent,” Palmer said.The Assembly met later last night to deliberate. City attorney Amy Mead says the Assembly has 45 days to issue its decision to the parties.Haven House is currently operating on Malissa Drive with staff, including a live-in manager, and two residents.last_img read more

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